David V. Lorenzo's Blog is now: www.careerintensity.com/blog

Five Factors in Strategic Thinking: Factor 1 – Time

The first question asked by a strategic thinker is, “How much time do I have to develop this plan, make this decision, or solve this problem?” This is the factor that will have the most influence on how the individual will proceed. Almost every other aspect of solution generation is dependent upon time constraints.

When time is limited, the strategic thinker is often forced to compromise her investigation into the underlying causes of an issue. Understanding causation of a problem is critical to offering effective solutions. In time sensitive situations, she is forced to rely on experience to determine the ultimate cause for the current dilemma. The value of the solution becomes dependent upon her ability to diagnose the problem quickly. Time pressure makes this process very subjective.

Time pressure also limits her ability to try out her hypothesis or theory. A top performer almost always employs an iterative decision making process. She tests out a solution and makes adjustments and improvements to ascertain that the final answer is the most effective alternative. Severely limiting the amount of time she has to work on a problem will stifle this iterative process and will result in the need for making more changes “on the fly” once the solution is deployed.

This process plays out in real time whenever products are sold to consumers, such as in the case of a farmer’s market. A vendor selling fruit must continuously evaluate the demand for the fruit based upon the time left before it spoils. As the window of time decreases, the vendor reduces the price to stimulate demand. However, if the flow of traffic through his stand is strong, the vendor may decide to hold firm on his price, only reducing it if the buyers show resistance.

Having too much time can also be an issue. In situations where time is unlimited people often try to capture too much information. Because it is almost impossible to complete truly exhaustive research on any topic, these attempts at boiling the ocean result in analysis paralysis.

Read this List and Save Money

The Big Picture has a list of reminders for a market downturn.  Here it is:

Hedge fund manager Doug Kass gives people some needed reminders:

1. Above all, do your own homework! Do not rely on television commentators, strategists, biased money managers (who are talking their book!) in your decisions. Do your own research. Use the significant resources on the Internet to accomplish this.

2. Use old-fashioned common sense! If things look too good, they probably are and will turn down. If things look too bad, they probably will turn around and improve.

3. Don't be afraid to be a contrarian -- in small doses! When everyone (and their entire family) is long a sector or is avoiding a sector (and is exceptionally glib about it), it should be a sign to go the other way.

4. Let your gains run and stop your losses! -- Don't average down.

5. Be a cynic and remain skeptical even when the good times are apparent! This especially true as it relates to government statistics.

6. Let speculation be your guide! If investors all around you are losing their heads, don't lose yours.

7. Read and reread the classic books on investing! In bull markets, the historical perspective is disregarded. But in bear markets, or volatile markets, the history lessons are invaluable as market conditions/influences are nearly always repeated.

8. When times are tough (like the present), do not press your investments and do not overtrade! Mr. Market will be back up and running tomorrow ... and the next day.

9. In uncertain times do a simple piece of homework: Reassess why you own each investment! Omega Advisors' Leon Cooperman taught me to draw a line in the middle of a page and list how you view the assets and liabilities for the markets and for each individual investment.

10. Do not forget point #1!

People tend to forget the basics when they invest.  This list is a good reminder.

Get Naked – Present Better

Yes, you heard me correctly.  Actually Presentation Zen has two posts that you really should read and they're titled Make Your Next Presentation Naked and More on Getting Naked. 

The focus is on being “in the moment”.  The posts are lengthy but worth a read.

Like This Blog? Tell a Friend

Marketing Comet has a great post today about referrals.  JD Moore tells us about a system he set up to help a client.  He also gives us some great tips on setting up a referral system for our selves.  Here’s the money quote:

“What makes a good referral system?

§         Your customers know that you expect referrals. You don't want to pressure your customers to refer, but they should know that's how you're building your business. Some people don't give referrals simply because they don't think about it.

§         Reward for referrals. Give your customers thanks for referrals and you will increase the number of times they refer. This may be the only part of the system that costs anything. You may be able to reward clients in a way that costs nothing too. My martial arts instructor client runs a contest and whoever gives the most referrals in a month wins a prize.

§         Make it very easy for referrals to do business with you. Maybe referrals get a discount the first time they buy from you, or they get a free trial. Giving out referral coupons with the referrers name on them is a great way to track and reward referrals.

§         You must provide amazing service. People are not going to refer their friends if you aren't stellar at what you do. It's unfortunate how many businesses don't get that great service is so unbelievably important to their success.”

That’s good stuff.  Referrals are the life blood of any service business.  Follow JD’s advice and I’m certain you will see results.

The Tribe Has Spoken

Steve Crescenzo at Corporate Hallucinations has an interesting post about workplace culture.  He breaks the employees into groups if people named by their defining characteristics.  Here’s the money quote:

“The Duck and Run Tribe: These people are the ones who always have to "pick my kid up at the dentist" or "have hernia surgery" every time there's real work to be done.

The Crap and Leave Tribe: These are the sons of b**t**s who come to a meeting, spew forth a lot of "ideas" in order to look smart . . . and leave everybody with a sh*tload of extra work to do.

The Piss and Moan Tribe: These people are never happy. Never. Ever. You find a lot of these people in corporate design departments, for some reason.

The Kiss and Suck Tribe: These people spend 99 percent of their time kissing ass, in order to get ahead. There is a heavy presence of Kiss and Suck Tribe members in most sales departments.”

Although Steve’s research is not as scientific as some of the other studies I’ve seen he does seem to have a good handle on workplace culture. 

Sad Song Says So-Long

Delta Airlines announced yesterday that Song – its discount airline – is going away.  Delta hopes to incorporate some of the features that people liked (such as on demand video and direct service on popular routes like New York to Ft. Lauderdale. 

There’s no word if they will extend the friendly flight attendant requirement to the rest of the fleet.  That may be too much to ask. Below is a portion of the company’s press release.

Atlanta, Oct. 28, 2005 – Delta Air Lines announced today that it will tap the best features of its highly acclaimed Song product to launch a new and unique long-haul domestic Song service for Delta customers. 

The plan to merge Song into the Delta travel experience includes:

§         Adding 26 first-class seats to Song’s existing fleet of 48 Boeing 757-200 aircraft, making the service more attractive to business travelers and significantly enhancing revenue opportunities.

§         Converting an additional 50-plus Delta aircraft to two-class Song service, complete with all-leather seating and new interiors throughout.

§         Expanding state-of-the-art personal digital in-flight entertainment to all 100-plus aircraft, with 24 channels of live television, 10 on-demand video channels, interactive video games and MP3 programming that allows customers to create their own play lists from an inventory of more than 1,600 songs.

§         Offering this exclusive Song service initially on all transcontinental Delta flights beginning fall 2006 and expanding the service to include all routes over 1,750 miles over two years.

§         Incorporating Delta’s new uniforms, improved snack service and award-winning SkyMiles® program to offer customers the best value in transcontinental travel.   

At least the new uniforms will be moving over to Delta’s long-haul aircraft.  Brand Autopsy has an interesting take on this whole situation.  Check it out by clicking here.

Name Dane’s Kid

Dane Carlson wants help picking out his baby’s name, so of course he turned to his blog readers for help.  Click here to submit a name.  Here are Dane’s rules:

1. It can’t be popular. Our first son’s name, Emerson, is number 755 on this list.

2. It shouldn’t start with an E. Don’t want to start a trend.

3. It shouldn’t end in “son”. Don’t want to start a trend with this, either.

4. No cities names. I have a set of cousin’s named after cities, so it’s their trend.

I’m not sure if he’s serious but I’d like to give Dane and his wife a hand. I’m posting my choice in his comments section.

Personal Strategic Planning

Have you ever had a moment when you wished for a second chance at a decision, when you clearly recognized that you had acted irrationally? Virtually everyone has had 20/20 hindsight at some point in their lives and has longed for the opportunity to revisit a critical decision. The failure to think strategically – to see a clear path through the mental haze that surrounds a decision – when faced with a career-related or life-changing choice can mean the difference between rousing success and dismal failure. If you aspire to greatness, the process of strategic thinking must become second nature to you. By examining the implications of your choices and analyzing the options available to you before you make decisions, you will develop a competitive advantage in business and in life.

In its highest form, strategic thinking is a distinct perspective that helps you break down complicated processes into easily manageable pieces that can be arranged to present a clear set of alternatives. Some people are blessed with a unique perspective that allows them to mentally break down complex issues and picture alternatives with ease. Others must learn this type of behavior. The process of learning to think strategically is similar to learning a foreign language. As an American born and raised in New York, I learned to speak Spanish in my late twenties. As I practiced speaking Spanish, I became better and better at thinking and responding in a language that was not native to me. Today, I have internalized the language to the point where my response time in Spanish is equal to my response time in English; however speaking Spanish requires significantly more effort than speaking my native language. Those who are natural strategic thinkers can intuitively develop alternatives to complex issues once they review the existing evidence or data. People who learn strategic thinking can also achieve the same result – it just might take more time and effort.

A super-achiever brings intensity to his thinking process. He is intellectually curious and aggressive. In his individual cycle of continuous improvement he thinks like a well run company – strategically.

Next week we are going to take a look at the five factors that influence strategic thinking.

We’ll cover one factor each day Monday through Friday.  I will also archive the posts in the Individual Performance section of the blog so that you can share them with others.

Five Steps to Achieve Your Goals

The Millionaire Blog has a tip today on accomplishing your goals.  The advice in the post comes from Christy Geiger, a strategic planning coach and the owner of Synergy Strategies. 

Christy’s five steps are:

Evaluate. What do I really want? Where am I headed? What am I doing now?

Get Real. What is really important that will impact and support your long term goals the best? What is not important? What is distracting me? What is not really supporting my long term goal?

Plan. What do I need to do to accomplish my goal? What are the KEY action steps? How will I do this? What schedule or strategy will keep me focused?

Focus. Who do you need to be and what structures do you need to have to accomplish this (mindset, attitude, accountability)?

Monitor/Evaluate. Am I doing little, unimportant things? Am I procrastinating? What is working/ what is not? How could I streamline what I am doing?

I believe that you can never get enough information on setting and achieving goals.  Most people overlook this critical step and they wind up in a rut – for a very long time.

Business Name Mistakes

Dane points us to a post at Business Know-How about business naming mistakes.

A good name is critical to the success a business on the web.  You have to select a name that will stand out and is memorable.

Here are Business Know-How’s six mistakes to avoid:

1.      Getting stuck in alphabet soup

2.      Using names that are too long, or difficult to understand, spell or pronounce

3.      Picking business names that limit business growth

4.      Letting the grey areas get you discouraged or immobilized

5.      Being an island

6.      Failing to check if your chosen business names belong to another business

I would add one more to this list:

Failure to checkout what the name means in other languages.  We’ve all heard the stories like the one about the Chevy Nova.  In Spanish Nova means “Does not go”.  That’s not good if you want to sell cars to the 55% of the population that speaks / understands Spanish.

Naming your business is a tough task and you only get one chance to get it right.